Qatar's weakening foreign policy following the coup in Egypt and changes on the ground in Syria
Subject: Qatar's weakening foreign policy following the coup in
Egypt and changes on the ground in Syria, September 24, 2013.
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Do you think Qatar has overplayed its foreign policy hand in the
last few years?
I don’t think Qatar has overplayed its hand with its foreign
policy. The rulers of Qatar simply overestimated the durability of assets
(Aljazeera and the Muslim Brotherhood) and underestimated the Arab public’s skepticism
of politicians and governments. Clearly, the outgoing Emir, who came to power
by overthrowing his own father, was very aware of the disconnect between the
Arab masses and their leaders. He engineered Aljazeera as a tool to capitalize
on that trust deficit and befriended a religious and political movement that
was very popular among the disenfranchised segments of Arab societies but shunned
by all Arab regimes—the Muslim Brotherhood. That worked for a while. What they
did not anticipate is that the Arab masses’ capacity for authoritarianism was rapidly
declining, ironically enough thanks in part to Aljazeera, and the public
support for the Muslim Brotherhood was mathematically limited (40% support
max.). In other words, the people wanted the old system gone, not replaced by a
new brand of authoritarianism. Egypt’s events highlighted that: Egyptians
equated secular authoritarianism (Mubarak’s) to the new emerging religious
authoritarianism (The Muslim Brotherhood). As for Aljazeera, taking side of one
party over another irreparably damaged its reputation; and once the link
between Aljazeera editorial decisions and Qatar’s foreign policy became
obvious, Aljazeera-Arabic became another partisan agency, not as the fiercely
independent channel it marketed itself to be when it first started.
Do you think there is any link between the former Emir stepping
down and Qatar's decision to focus on domestic priorities rather than
foreign policy endeavors?
The outgoing Emir needed to step down one way or another. He
needed to do that because he put his personal credibility on the line when he
supported all uprisings and civil wars that removed (or threatening to remove)
the regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria. The Emir and his Prime
Minister insisted that the Arab world must be ruled by governments chosen by
the people. Of course for that position to remain consistent, he (and the other
rulers of the Gulf States) needed to make political concessions, too. Stepping
down was the best way to accommodate that rhetoric. But he would not have
stepped down when he did if it were not for the crisis in Syria. Egypt’s events
(which happened after the handover) was just another reason that forced the new
ruler (Tamim) to take a step back. I don’t think there has been a planned total
shift from foreign to domestic, it is just the complexity of the situations in
Syria and Egypt that are forcing the new ruler to take a more measured
positions than that of Saudi Arabia for instance.
Qatar spent nearly 4% of its GDP propping up Mohammed Morsi's
government in Egypt. Why do you think the country hasn't condemned the
military's actions more forcefully?
The crisis in Egypt was unexpected and the removal of Morsi took
place just 8 days after the handover. Moreover, the change in Qatar was
necessitated, in part, by the Emir’s failure in Syria, which meant that a new
strategy was needed. That strategy was not in place when Morsi was ousted.
Based on (Arabic) Aljazeera coverage, and when compared to Alarabiyya’s,
Tamim’s foreign policy regarding Egypt is still pro-Muslim Brotherhood, just
not as forceful at the moment.
In terms of Qatar's large ambitions - its desire to try and
mediate regional conflicts and its hosting of high-profile conferences - how
much of this is linked to security concerns following Iraq's invasion of
Kuwait? And how much of this is linked simply to egotism and a desire to be
noticed?
Indeed,
the outgoing Emir was a very ambitious person. I am not totally convinced that
his disproportionate foreign policy was dictated by his concern for foreign
threats. If there was a serious threat to his rule or his country, it must have
been domestic, especially given the way he came to power. His personal
ambitions, however, are present in every endeavor from hosting global
conferences to hosting the World Cup (still a controversial decision), he
wanted Qatar to be known around the world. He was able to achieve many
milestones because he had run the country like a corporation and his foreign
policy was more like Public Relations than Diplomacy.
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* The reporter expressed regret that not all the comments (especially those deemed controversial) could be published on Aljazeera due to legal restrictions. The full conversation is published here to provide full context.
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